A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
